Business Conditions Index (BCI)

The CKGSB Business Conditions Index Chart

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Business Competitiveness

Business Conditions Index (BCI)

A set of forward-looking diffusion indicators. The index takes 50 as its threshold, so a value above 50 means that the variable that the index measures is expected to increase, while a value below 50 means that the variable is expected to fall. The CKGSB BCI uses the same methodology as the PMI index.

Profit

Corporate profit index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures future prospects

Inventory

Inventory index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures future prospects

Total Costs

Measure the business’ overall operation costs

Consumer Prices

Measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. CPI is the most widely used measure of inflation and, by proxy, of the effectiveness of the government’s economic policy.

Employment

Indicates whether businesses are recruiting in the next six months

Sales

Corporate sales index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures future prospects

Financing

Corporate financing index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures current climate

Labor Costs

Labor costs index measure forecasts for the next six months

Investment

Indicates whether businesses are making investments in the next six months

Intermediate Goods Prices

Measures what businesses pay for inputs.

Business Competitiveness

This index records our sample’s relative strength in the marketplace, based on self-reported competitiveness compared with their respective industries peers.

 

About the CKGSB
Business Conditions Index

In June 2011, the CKGSB Case Center and the Center for Economic Research initiated a project to gauge the business sentiment of executives about the macro-economic environment in China – called an index of business conditions. Under the direction of Professor Li Wei, the two research centers designed and tested the BCI survey in July 2011. In September 2011, the first surveys were distributed and first results computed, and has been published monthly ever since. The CKGSB Business Conditions Index is a set of forward-looking, diffusion indices. The index takes 50 as its threshold, so an index value above 50 means that the variable that the index measures is expected to increase, while an index value below 50 means that the variable is expected to fall. The CKGSB BCI thus uses the same methodology as the PMI index.

The survey asks roughly 300+ senior executives of companies whether their main products are for consumers or non-consumers, and then asks how they think product prices will change in the next six months. Based on survey responses, we have been able to report expectant changes in consumer and producer prices, as well as a variety of other related indices. Companies surveyed are across different sectors, including consumer, industrial, real estate, manufacturing and staple.

Latest Survey Results

The CKGSB BCI for August 2025 registered at 46.9, representing a modest decrease from the 47.7 in July 2025. The BCI has fallen below the 50-point threshold, suggesting a lack of momentum.

For more information on the BCI, or to arrange an interview with Professor Li Wei, please email joseph@ckgsb.edu.cn

Reports