Business Conditions Index (BCI)

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Business Conditions Index (BCI)

A set of forward-looking diffusion indicators. The index takes 50 as its threshold, so a value above 50 means that the variable that the index measures is expected to increase, while a value below 50 means that the variable is expected to fall. The CKGSB BCI uses the same methodology as the PMI index.

Profit

Corporate profit index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures future prospects

Inventory

Inventory index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures future prospects

Overall Costs

Measure the business’ overall operation costs

Consumer Prices

Measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. CPI is the most widely used measure of inflation and, by proxy, of the effectiveness of the government’s economic policy.

Recruitment

Indicates whether businesses are recruiting in the next six months

Sales

Corporate sales index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures future prospects

Financing

Corporate financing index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures current climate

Labor Costs

Labor costs index measure forecasts for the next six months

Investment

Indicates whether businesses are making investments in the next six months

Producer Prices

Measures what businesses pay for inputs.

Industry comparison

This index records our sample’s relative strength in the marketplace, based on self-reported competitiveness compared with their respective industries peers.

About the CKGSB
Business Conditions Index

In June 2011, the CKGSB Case Center and the Center for Economic Research initiated a project to gauge the business sentiment of executives about the macro-economic environment in China – called an index of business conditions. Under the direction of Professor Li Wei, the two research centers designed and tested the BCI survey in July 2011. In September 2011, the first surveys were distributed and first results computed, and has been published monthly ever since. The CKGSB Business Conditions Index is a set of forward-looking, diffusion indices. The index takes 50 as its threshold, so an index value above 50 means that the variable that the index measures is expected to increase, while an index value below 50 means that the variable is expected to fall. The CKGSB BCI thus uses the same methodology as the PMI index.

The survey asks roughly 300+ senior executives of companies whether their main products are for consumers or non-consumers, and then asks how they think product prices will change in the next six months. Based on survey responses, we have been able to report expectant changes in consumer and producer prices, as well as a variety of other related indices. Companies surveyed are across different sectors, including consumer, industrial, real estate, manufacturing and staple.

Latest survey results

In October, the CKGSB Business Conditions Index (BCI) weakened from 54.5 to 51.6 (Figure 1). (Chinese version available here).

For more information, or to arrange an interview with Professor Li Wei, please email jessicawang@ckgsb.edu.cn.

Reports

The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – October 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – September 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – August 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – July 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – June 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – May 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – April 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – March 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – February 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – January 2021

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – December 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – November 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – October 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – September 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – August 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – July 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – June 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – May 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – April 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – March 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – February 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – January 2020

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – December 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – November 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – October 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – September 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – August 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – July 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – June 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – May 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – April 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – March 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – February 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – January 2019

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – December 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – November 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – October 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – September 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – August 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – July 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – June 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – May 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – April 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – March 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – February 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – January 2018

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – December 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – November 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – October 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – September 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – August 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – July 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – June 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – May 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – April 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – March 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – February 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – January 2017

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – December 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – November 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – October 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – September 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – August 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – July 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – June 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – May 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – April 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – March 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – February 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – January 2016

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – December 2015

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – November 2015

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The CKGSB Business Conditions Index – October 2015

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