A set of forward-looking diffusion indicators. The index takes 50 as its threshold, so a value above 50 means that the variable that the index measures is expected to increase, while a value below 50 means that the variable is expected to fall. The CKGSB BCI uses the same methodology as the PMI index.
Corporate profit index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures future prospects
Inventory index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures future prospects
Measure the business’ overall operation costs
Measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. CPI is the most widely used measure of inflation and, by proxy, of the effectiveness of the government’s economic policy.
Indicates whether businesses are recruiting in the next six months
Corporate sales index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures future prospects
Corporate financing index is a sub-index of the BCI and measures current climate
Labor costs index measure forecasts for the next six months
Indicates whether businesses are making investments in the next six months
Measures what businesses pay for inputs.
This index records our sample’s relative strength in the marketplace, based on self-reported competitiveness compared with their respective industries peers.
In June 2011, the CKGSB Case Center and the Center for Economic Research initiated a project to gauge the business sentiment of executives about the macro-economic environment in China – called an index of business conditions. Under the direction of Professor Li Wei, the two research centers designed and tested the BCI survey in July 2011. In September 2011, the first surveys were distributed and first results computed, and has been published monthly ever since. The CKGSB Business Conditions Index is a set of forward-looking, diffusion indices. The index takes 50 as its threshold, so an index value above 50 means that the variable that the index measures is expected to increase, while an index value below 50 means that the variable is expected to fall. The CKGSB BCI thus uses the same methodology as the PMI index.
The survey asks roughly 300+ senior executives of companies whether their main products are for consumers or non-consumers, and then asks how they think product prices will change in the next six months. Based on survey responses, we have been able to report expectant changes in consumer and producer prices, as well as a variety of other related indices. Companies surveyed are across different sectors, including consumer, industrial, real estate, manufacturing and staple.
In May, the CKGSB Business Conditions Index (BCI) continued to fall, dropping from 40.8 to 37.3 (Figure 1), well below the confidence threshold of 50.0. (Chinese version available here).
For more information, or to arrange an interview with Professor Li Wei, please email firstname.lastname@example.org.