Beijing, January 28, 2026 — Despite strong headline gains in global equity markets in 2025, a growing divide has emerged between retail and institutional investors in China, according to the latest CKGSB Investor Sentiment Survey (CKISS) Q4 2025 released by Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business (CKGSB).
The survey finds that retail investor optimism strengthened toward year-end, even as institutional investors sharply downgraded their short-term outlook for both China’s A-share and Hong Kong equity markets. By the fourth quarter, 64.2% of retail investors remained bullish on A-shares, up from September, while the share of bullish institutional investors fell to 59.8%, a decline of more than six percentage points. A similar divergence appeared in expectations for Hong Kong equities.
This split comes at a critical moment. While China’s major equity indices posted strong full-year gains in 2025, momentum slowed significantly in the fourth quarter. This survey notes that institutional caution reflects valuation concerns: A-share market valuations rose more than 21% in 2025, while comparable corporate earnings increased by less than 1%, indicating that the rally was driven primarily by valuation expansion rather than fundamentals.
“Institutions appear to be responding to stretched valuations and rising uncertainty with more disciplined risk management,” LIU Jing, Professor of Accounting and Finance at CKGSB and author of the survey, notes, even as retail investors continue to express confidence in further market upside.
The survey also highlights broad-based pessimism around China’s real estate market, where retail and institutional investors are unusually aligned. Fewer than 37% of respondents expect housing prices to rise, a steep decline from the previous quarter, underscoring persistent concerns about weak domestic demand and the negative wealth effects of falling property prices.
On the macro front, China’s economy demonstrated resilience in 2025 amid heightened global uncertainty. However, the report flags structural challenges, including a record-low birth rate of fewer than 8 million newborns and continued softness in household consumption, as key constraints on long-term growth.
In 2026, Professor Liu cautions that elevated global uncertainty — ranging from shifting U.S. trade policies to financial risks emerging in Japan — could further test investor confidence, reinforcing the importance of boosting domestic demand and strengthening China’s long-term growth foundations.
CKGSB is China’s first privately-funded and research-driven business school. The CKGSB Investor Sentiment Survey is a quarterly study tracking expectations of retail and institutional investors in China.
