Latest survey results

The key findings from the Q1 2025 Business Sentiment Index (BSI) report are as follows:

The Q1 2025 CKGSB China Industrial Economy Survey has returned an overall business sentiment score of 55, consistent with the last period, and giving a general picture of smooth business operations.

Of the indices that make up the overall score, the operating conditions diffusion index remained stable (66), and at a relatively high level. Operating prospects (49) reduced somewhat, falling under the boom-bust confidence threshold.

The investment timing diffusion index (51) rose since Q4 of last year (47). Uncertainty is still the main factor holding back economic recovery, under the impact of intensified geopolitics.

This quarter, the indices measuring production volume (45) and finished product inventory (44) fell sharply. Companies reported actively changing production levels to respond to shifting market demand.

Greater investment confidence however shows that enterprises have a good feeling about long-term prospects. In Q1, the costs diffusion index (64) rose four percentage points over Q4 2024, while the prices diffusion index (51) dampened. Companies have greater cost pressures, and the profit space has been squeezed. Under the influence of countercyclical monetary policy adjustments, companies reporting new corporate loans (4%) fell 1% from the previous quarter, while the willingness of financial institutions to lend (100) rose.

Survey respondents said that China’s macroeconomic conditions were relatively cold. In the face of turbulent global conditions, inputting certainty into the market and boosting consumer and producer confidence may aid in economic recovery and stimulate resilience and potential in the Chinese economy.

The full survey can be downloaded via the links below.

For more information, or to arrange an interview with the professors, please email Julie Tian xftian@ckgsb.edu.cn.