The transformation to 6G: standardization or fragmentation?

Every major technological revolution in the past half century, from smartphones to smart factories, has been powered by faster and smarter communication networks. 6G is poised to be the next big game changer and has the potential to generate well over $50 billion in the first five years of rollout, much of which will go to those companies involved in providing the network infrastructure and equipment. Expected to allow for full integration of AI into its systems to drastically change the way data moves, 6G is expected to begin rolling out in early 2030, and China is emerging as one of its pioneers.

Previous telecommunications standards, including the current 5G, have been shaped less by technical limitations than by political and commercial fragmentation. Although 5G is built on globally agreed standards, its rollout became a dividing line in global technology: Western countries built networks largely using equipment from Qualcomm, Ericsson and Nokia, while China relied on Huawei and ZTE, achieving widespread deployment at home and significant uptake across much of the Global South.

With 6G now on the horizon, the same dynamic is set to play out again. But this time the stakes are higher, with increasing amounts of data, and what you can do with it, increasingly at the center of all key global developments.

“Preliminary studies on 6G indicate there will be a “step change” from 5G in terms of technical performance.” says Elena Scaramuzzi, head of Global Research at Cullen International. “Key performance indicators already attained for 5G will reach a new level.”

A look at 5G and 6G

4G, 5G and 6G refer to standards in wireless communication that define how data is transferred over mobile networks. 4G rolled out around 2010, with 5G following in 2019. 4G allowed the world to go truly mobile, accessing fast and reliable internet from anywhere. The implementation of 5G has transformed the world as we know it. Faster speeds have laid the foundations for broader digitalization, in particular the growth of IoT systems.

By the end of 2024, 5G coverage had reached roughly 55% of the global population. China’s rollout of 5G has been one of the fastest and most extensive anywhere in the world, with over four million 5G base stations—several times more than the US and the EU combined—according to its telecom regulator, with coverage reaching almost the entire country.

But 5G has remained a fragmented ecosystem, with an uneven rollout between countries, a situation that 6G would ideally avoid repeating.

“Although 5G has not yet produced a universally recognized ‘killer application,’ it has systematically addressed 4G’s shortcomings in areas such as system capacity, security capabilities, and network manageability and controllability, laying a solid foundation for the further penetration of mobile internet,” says Kai Cui, associate research director for IDC China’s Telecommunications and IoT Group.

6G is anticipated to dramatically exceed the performance of 5G. With research such as types of antennas, ultra-high frequencies, AI-driven networks, satellite links etc. as a starting point, telecom companies, chip makers and equipment vendors have moved in to test what can actually work in the real world.

Cullen International’s Scaramuzzi says, “6G is expected to be anything from 10-100 times faster than 5G, and have incredibly low latency.”

According to Scaramuzzi, compared with 5G, 6G will be able to deliver peak data rates of 1 Tbps and latency of 0.1 milliseconds, against 1 Gbps and 1 millisecond for 5G.

However, its anticipated to not merely be a faster 5G, but a platform for intelligent networking, linking people, devices, systems and physical infrastructure in an entirely new way. 6G is also expected to embed AI and machine-learning into its network management, which will have huge implications for digital traffic optimization and resource allocation.

“For 6G, the more realistic and near-term directions are AI-native networks, ‘network as a sensor’ (integrated sensing and communication), and technologies such as near-field communication and RIS, which together will reshape how networks support intelligent agents and the physical world,” says IDC China’s Cui.

In terms of the devices, the ecosystem is also expected to change. It is anticipated by industry analysts that while smartphones will remain important, there will be less focus on handsets. Devices such as wearables, vehicles, industrial sensors and ambient computing devices are expected to take up a larger bulk of traffic network.

The beginning of division

We are seeing the emergence of two competing visions for what 6G will look like. On the one hand, regions such as the US, the EU, Japan and South Korea are promoting what is generally termed open/interoperable systems, while China is leading the way for the model of sovereign digital ecosystems.

The key features of the open/interoperable system are that it makes use of shared open interfaces and standards (Open RAN). The pros of such a system are that it allows more choice and competition, leading to potentially lower costs. There may also be faster innovation with shared standards through multiple companies. That said, open can be more complex to manage and leave more space for security inconsistencies across different components.

Meanwhile, the sovereign digital ecosystem promoted by China focuses on strategic autonomy and sovereign control over capabilities. The sovereign system offers more control to the government or operator, and as a single integrated system, allows for more consistent performance. It does, however, limit competitiveness and risk isolation, being incompatible with other countries’ systems.

Global development of 6G

The rollout for 6G is generally expected to begin around 2030, with some pilot networks earlier than that.

China is developing its own 6G ecosystem independent of the model being developed by Western and other East Asian countries. There has been strong support for 6G from the central government, with it being highlighted as a key area for development. China notably conducted the world’s first 6G test satellite launches, held between 2020 and 2024. It also holds among the world’s highest number of patents for 6G related technology, such as channel coding, AI-RAN and intelligent surfaces. The actual value of those patents, however, will depend on what is actually adopted and how.

Major telecom vendors such as Huawei and ZTE are deeply engaged in development, as well as state-run China Mobile. At the same time, government research institutes and top technology universities are playing a major role in early-stage research and development, with more than 20 Chinese universities and national labs participating in 6G testbeds and research groups, and hundreds of joint industry–academia papers published each year.

“Several other economies around the world are investing in 6G R&D and taking part in global standardization efforts—in the EU we have a specific R&D initiative focused on 5G and 6G jointly funded by industry and the EU, the Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking,” Scaramuzzi says, adding “South Korea, Japan, the US, as well as large economies like India and Brazil are also into 6G R&D.”

The approach of the US and the EU is more focused on building collaborations across various tech firms, telecom operators and researchers to shape the development of 6G. Initiatives such as Next G Alliance in North America, and the Hexa-X and Hexa-X-II programs in Europe are working to coordinate research across industry, academia and government.

Japan and South Korea are also notable players in the field and were among the first to test prototype 6G equipment, working to position themselves as early leaders in standard-setting and to secure commercial advantages once 6G rolls out. The governments of these two countries have been funding testbeds in the early 2020s, which are essentially trial environments to try out new chips, antennas and network designs.

There are various bodies working to try to bring everyone together and agree on some global standards. These groups include 3GPP and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The challenge they are trying to overcome is to avoid a repeat of the fractionalization of 6G as happened with 5G. Discussions found that while there is broad agreement on technical goals, differences over implementation raise the biggest risk to fractionalization.

The bodies are working to set the technical rules that allow networks, devices and applications from different countries and companies to work together. Without common standards, phones might only work on certain national networks, equipment costs would rise, and globally there would be a fragmentation into incompatible systems.

These standardization bodies are the foundation for maintaining global interoperability. IDC China’s Telecommunications and IoT Group’s Cui says, “On one hand, they provide an acceptable unified interface layer through open technical consensus and transparent processes, ensuring that devices and applications can roam across different networks.

“On the other hand, most operators and vendors are economically highly dependent on a single, scalable standard that works across regions; this intrinsic incentive means that, even in a more contested geopolitical environment, these organizations still have the ability to preserve basic alignment on key technologies and interfaces,” he says.

“Some large industry groups are actively involved in standardization efforts, as well as in international research and development initiatives on 6G,” Scaramuzzi says, adding that policymakers in some jurisdictions, such as the EU, are demonstrating support for 6G and making funding for research and development available.

But as 6G development accelerates, the ambition of maintaining a single global ecosystem appears even harder to realize, as geopolitical tensions, industrial policy and diverging national priorities increasingly shape research and deployment.

As Björn Fägersten of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs notes in his 2025 UI Brief on 6G, “Looking ahead to 6G, a geopolitical rematch reminiscent of the 5G contest is anticipated—highlighting how the next generation of mobile networks is likely to be shaped not only by technology but by great-power competition between the United States and China.”

Infrastructure and Implementation

In terms of physical infrastructure, 6G will require fundamental advances in several areas. New hardware is currently being designed, including antennas, advanced beamforming techniques and terahertz transceivers.

One major challenge is that 6G components are unlikely to be compatible with currently used 5G infrastructure. Essentially an entirely new network will need to be built, and the cost of such upgrades could be huge.

In terms of the devices, the ecosystem is also expected to change. It is anticipated by industry analysts that while smartphones will remain important, there will be less focus on handsets. Devices such as wearables, vehicles, industrial sensors and ambient computing devices are expected to take up a larger bulk of traffic network.

For developing economies, 6G represents both opportunity and risk. On the one hand, the development of satellite-terrestrial integration could extend connectivity to previously hard to reach regions, however the large costs and fragmented ecosystems could also widen the already existing digital divide.

How 6G ends up rolling out will to a large extent depend on local conditions. “When we consider 5G–and in the future 6G–providers in the industry cannot fail to consider the demand for this type of connectivity, and the related investment required, which needs sufficient returns,” Scaramuzzi says.

“The new generation of mobile services are mostly targeting markets requiring connectivity features that former generations of the mobile technology cannot deliver,” she says. “So, depending on the economic and industrial context, you can see different strategies and approaches on 6G.”

What will 6G look like?

The defining feature of 6G is likely to be its integration with AI, which is expected to play a large part in the running of 6G networks and the data flowing over those networks. AI is also expected to play a huge role in real-time network optimization, maintenance and adaptive resource allocation.

Autonomous systems, such as coordinated fleets of driverless vehicles or drones are placed to benefit significantly from the low-latency communication and real-time decision-making capabilities of AI-driven 6G networks.

“It will structurally change how sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare and financial services design operations, scale systems and innovate, gradually shifting from bespoke, vertically integrated solutions to services built atop a programmable, intelligence-aware network platform,” says Cui.

”The biggest use of 6G will be in industrial domains, initially, with a slower uptake in private networks due to costs,” says Scaramuzzi, adding “However, 6G functionalities might enable provision of advanced, high-reliability services that can be made available to citizens—in the transportation sector, or in healthcare for example—but that might take time.”

There are also big implications for the entertainment sector, with immersive environments such as augmented reality, or even holographic communication potentially possible on a 6G network.

Shaping the Future

6G is already reshaping national digital strategies around the world, as well as industrial policy and AI development, and as it gets closer to its rollout, will continue to do so. There is much discussion over the merits of the two different models which have already surfaced and there is much discussion over the merits and shortcomings of each one.

The geopolitical environment in 2019, when 5G first was first widely implemented, resulted in a fragmented and divided rollout. Now that the stakes are even higher and the geopolitical gaps even wider, 6G is also certain to follow the same path, only more so. But while the risk of fragmentation is real, the average user is unlikely to notice such a change.

That said, 6G is going to dramatically change the way data is used, and companies need to position themselves to take advantage of this. Those who are able to adapt their business models to take advantage of the new possibilities 6G will offer in terms of the speed and volume of data and are prepared for its rollout in terms of the services and equipment they use, will stand to benefit hugely.

“For end consumers, the most meaningful shift with 6G will not be ‘seeing a new icon’ on the handset, but a reconfiguration of the relationship between networks and applications,” says Cui.