The logistics industry: how global trade is re-wiring itself in a multipolar world

Over the past decade, global logistics has experienced one of the most volatile periods in its modern history. Before 2020, the industry benefited from decades of expanding globalization, predictable trade flows and steadily intensifying cross-border integration. But in recent years, logistics companies have found themselves navigating an entirely new operating environment—one shaped by a global pandemic, geopolitical tensions, regulatory shifts and uneven macroeconomic performance across regions and sectors.

Despite this turbulence, I remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term direction of global trade. The evidence we see in both industry data and customer behavior suggests that while international commerce may be reshaped, it is not retreating. In fact, in several ways, global interconnection continues to deepen.

Throughout the pandemic, logistics networks became an even more critical part of global infrastructure. Demand surged as governments, healthcare systems and households relied on transport providers to keep essential goods moving. Afterward, as economies reopened, new pressures emerged, ranging from US–China trade tensions to political conflict in key regions to a softer economic outlook in China and Europe. Many companies began reassessing their supply chain structures, exploring diversification or nearshoring strategies.

But what is striking is that these adjustments have not reduced the overall scale of cross-border trade. The latest data show that goods today tend to travel longer distances than before, indicating that companies are reconfiguring supply chains rather than collapsing them.

Medium-term projections suggest that global trade will grow at roughly the same pace as global GDP—around 2.5% per year from 2025 to 2029. This mirrors the pattern of the last decade, despite the heightened geopolitical uncertainty of recent years. Globalization, in other words, is evolving—not reversing.

Balancing growth With sustainability

As global trade expands and supply chains grow more complex, sustainability has become one of the defining challenges of the logistics sector. Increasingly, companies must reconcile the traditional goals of speed, reliability and cost efficiency with the urgent need to reduce environmental impact. In practice, this means confronting the reality that transportation—particularly aviation—remains a major source of emissions.

Across the industry, companies have begun setting long-term targets for emissions reduction, with many aiming for net-zero operations by mid-century. The most immediate challenge lies in aviation, where sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has emerged as one of the most promising near-term solutions. But SAF currently carries a cost premium—typically two to four times the price of conventional jet fuel—which makes widescale adoption financially complex.

To bridge this gap, we have started experimenting with collaborative models involving fuel producers, policymakers and customers, creating programs through which clients can opt to co-invest in emissions-reducing measures—including SAF—so that environmental benefits and financial burdens are shared.

So far, uptake has been encouraging—we have seen participation in our GoGreen Plus program rise from 30,000 to 70,000 customers in just two years—reflecting the fact that many businesses now have their own decarbonization targets and are seeking practical mechanisms to meet them. While the economics of SAF remain challenging, the pace of adoption across the industry suggests that momentum is building.

Policymakers will play an increasingly important role in scaling these solutions. Fuel standards, incentive schemes and cross-border regulatory alignment can all accelerate the transition. The logistics sector, for its part, is engaging more directly with regulators to help ensure that sustainability frameworks reflect operational realities.

Digital transformation in logistics

Technology is reshaping logistics more profoundly than at any time since containerization. Where the previous era was defined by physical infrastructure—ports, aircraft, trucks, warehouses—the current one is increasingly defined by data infrastructure.

Customers now expect real-time visibility across the entire shipment journey. This has led the industry to invest heavily in digital tools that can track flows, analyze risks and predict disruptions before they occur. Platforms integrating thousands of data sources, including weather patterns, traffic conditions, port congestion, labor disputes and geopolitical alerts, are becoming widely used to support more agile decision-making. Early-warning systems, once a niche capability, are now an essential component of resilient supply chain management.

Automation has also become central, particularly in high-volume markets such as China, where automated sorting, robotics and smart warehouses have dramatically improved throughput and reduced error rates. Some major logistics hubs now handle the majority of outbound shipments through automated systems, freeing human labor for more complex tasks.

On the customer side, digital self-service platforms are becoming the standard interface for booking, tracking and adjusting shipments. In some cases, these digital channels process the overwhelming majority of orders without manual intervention. The rise of these tools reflects a broader shift: logistics is increasingly a digital service supported by physical infrastructure, rather than the reverse.

To remain competitive, logistics companies are investing in horizon scanning—systematically analyzing emerging technologies such as AI, advanced robotics, edge computing and autonomous mobility. Their goal is not simply to identify trends but to understand when each technology will meaningfully influence operations. Some innovations may reshape logistics within five years; others may be a decade away. The challenge is distinguishing between the two.

Innovation through collaboration

Many of the most transformative innovations in logistics today emerge from collaboration with fast-developing industries. China offers particularly strong examples. Sectors such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are experimenting with new production models and demanding more customized, resilient logistics solutions. Their rapid growth and high standards often push logistics providers to rethink traditional approaches.

In recent years, for instance, the extraordinary growth of China’s energy technology sector has forced logistics networks to support increasingly complex, time-sensitive shipments—ranging from large-scale components to small batches of high-value parts. In several cases, advanced routing models and multimodal transport strategies have allowed companies to avoid costly production delays or mitigate the impact of congestion in ocean freight markets.

Using multimodal optimization and predictive modelling, we helped a Chinese energy sector client avoid a major delay and save $500,000 in potential costs during a period of ocean freight congestion. We also launched Ocean Express, a new logistics solution that blends predictive analytics with our global network to offer ocean freight with significantly faster transit times at affordable cost—a hybrid alternative between traditional air and sea.

These solutions are not just operational innovations; they reflect a deeper shift toward collaborative problem-solving between logistics providers and their customers.

Cross-border e-commerce

Few segments have grown as quickly—or changed as abruptly—as cross-border e-commerce. For Chinese exporters, it has become a major engine of global expansion, allowing small and medium-sized enterprises to reach overseas consumers directly. But recent regulatory changes have introduced a new layer of complexity.

The United States has removed the de minimis threshold for low-value imports, and the European Union is accelerating plans to implement per-parcel import processing fees. These changes have already caused a notable decline in cross-border parcel volumes.

However, the long-term outlook remains positive. Consumer demand for affordable, diversified online products continues to rise globally. Chinese sellers—well known for their adaptability—are already experimenting with alternative structures. Some are shifting from cross-border channels to general import models; others are investing in overseas warehouses to shorten delivery times. Free Trade Zone warehousing has also become more popular, allowing companies to store inventory closer to export channels while maintaining flexibility in customs clearance.

These adjustments highlight an important truth: the underlying business model of cross-border e-commerce remains compelling, even if its regulatory environment is evolving. The next phase of growth may come from more sophisticated logistics strategies and more localized distribution networks, rather than purely from volume expansion.

The geography of future growth

As supply chains diversify, the geography of global logistics is changing. Certain emerging markets—across Asia, the Middle East, Africa and parts of Eastern Europe—are becoming increasingly attractive manufacturing and consumption hubs. For example, we have identified a list of 20 high-growth countries in these areas where logistics demand is rising faster than global averages. In 2024, our business in these markets grew 6.9%, compared with around 2% in slower-growth countries.

Countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia illustrate this trend. Their expanding manufacturing bases, improving infrastructure and rising domestic consumption make them central to the next wave of supply chain realignment. Logistics companies will need to follow this shift by investing in local capabilities—warehousing, transport links, customs processes, digital platforms and talent development.

At the same time, high-tech industries such as healthcare, semiconductors and renewable energy are expanding across these high-growth regions. Their presence reinforces the need for logistics networks that can support sensitive, high-value and time-critical shipments. The future of global logistics will therefore depend not only on predicting trade flows but also on understanding the sectoral ecosystems driving demand within each region.

The human side of a digital industry

As automation accelerates, it is important to consider how this will affect the logistics workforce. Contrary to common fears, the industry still relies heavily on human expertise—particularly in areas such as exception handling, customer coordination, network design and problem-solving.

Investment is rising in comprehensive training programs designed to improve digital literacy and help employees adapt to new technologies, including the development of centralized AI or digital centers that provide continuous learning resources. Daily or weekly training modules allow employees to stay current with emerging tools and techniques.

Talent mobility is also becoming more common. Cross-border assignments—whether moving talent from Europe into China, or from China into markets such as Turkey or South Africa—help build the global cultural fluency needed to manage increasingly complex networks. Organizationally, we are using rigorous annual employee feedback surveys to help shape leadership accountability and improve workplace culture.

The future of logistics

The year ahead is likely to be challenging. Economic uncertainty persists across several major markets, geopolitical tensions remain elevated and regulatory shifts are introducing new complexities for cross-border commerce. From a logistics standpoint, these conditions will require careful network planning, strong risk management and ongoing adaptability.

But the long-term fundamentals of global logistics remain strong. Globalization is not disappearing, rather it is becoming more multi-polar and more networked. Technology is enabling levels of visibility and efficiency that were unimaginable a decade ago. Emerging markets are rising as new engines of growth. And industries at the forefront of technological innovation are creating new logistics demands that will shape the sector for years to come.

In this environment, success will depend on staying alert to both structural forces and short-term fluctuations. It will require collaboration across industries, investment in people as much as in technology and a willingness to rethink traditional logistics models. If companies can combine these elements then the next decade of global logistics, though more complex than the last, will also be one of tremendous opportunity.