The CKGSB Business Conditions Index
The CKGSB Business Conditions Index

LI Wei

In June 2011, the CKGSB Case Center and the Center for Economic Research initiated a project to gauge the business sentiment of executives about the macro-economic environment in China – called an index of business conditions. Under the direction of Professor Li Wei, the two research centers designed and tested the BCI survey in July 2011. In September 2011, the first surveys were distributed and first results computed, and has been published monthly ever since.

The CKGSB Business Conditions Index is a set of forward-looking, diffusion indices. The index takes 50 as its threshold, so an index value above 50 means that the variable that the index measures is expected to increase, while an index value below 50 means that the variable is expected to fall. The CKGSB BCI thus uses the same methodology as the PMI index.

The survey asks roughly 300+ senior executives of companies whether their main products are for consumers or non-consumers, and then asks how they think product prices will change in the next six months. Based on survey responses, we have been able to report expectant changes in consumer and producer prices, as well as a variety of other related indices. Companies surveyed are across different sectors, including consumer, industrial, real estate, manufacturing and staple.

Latest survey results:

In October, the CKGSB Business Conditions Index (BCI) registered 51.2, a slight improvement on last month’s 48.1, and above the confidence watershed of 50.0

The full survey can be downloaded via the links below (Chinese version available here).

For more information, or to arrange an interview with Professor Li Wei, please email jessicawang@ckgsb.edu.cn.

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