As China, the world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power, slides into its slowest annual expansion in 24 years, the country’s growth is closely watched by everyone around the world. However, the scarcity of reliable data makes deciphering the world’s most populous country a very tough task indeed.
CKGSB Professor Li Wei’s Business Confidence Index (BCI)—a unique index that measures the business sentiment of Chinese executives about China’s macro-economic environment—cuts straight to the heart of the problem by asking senior executives of Chinese companies about certain aspects of their business (e.g. sales, profits, corporate financing and inventory), providing forward-looking indicators that create a true indication of the road ahead.
Prof Li will introduce the BCI for the first time in Europe, and will also join a panel of experts to discuss the implications for businesses in Europe.
|10:30-10:35||Welcome by Ji Bo, Chief Representative of CKGSB Europe|
|10:35-10:40||Introductory Remarks by Sir Victor Blank, Senior Advisor, TPG Capital & Chairman, CKGSB European Advisory Board (confirmed)|
|10:40-11:10||Presentation by Prof. Li Wei on “China’s Financial Constraints and Debt Problem”|
|11:10-12:10|| Panel Discussion on “China’s Economic Prospects and Implications for Business in Europe”
Li Wei, Professor of Economics and Director of the Case Center, CKGSB (confirmed)
Leslie Young, Professor of Economics, CKGSB (confirmed)
Stephen Phillips, Chief Executive, CBBC & Chairman, EU-China Business Association (EUCBA) (confirmed)
Stefaan Vanhooren, President of Agfa Graphics (confirmed)
James Kynge, Emerging Markets Editor, FT & Chairman, FT Confidential Research (confirmed)
|12:10-12:35||Q&A with Audience|
|12:35-12:40||Closing Remarks by Jochum Haakma, Chairman of Netherlands Council for Trade Promotion (confirmed)|
|12:40-13:30||Networking and Light Lunch|
Professor of Economics and Director of the Case Center, CKGSB
Dr. Li Wei is a professor of economics and Director of the Case Center at CKGSB. He formerly served as a professor at the Darden Graduate School of Business, University of Virginia.
Previously, he was a research associate at the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Studies and taught at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business.
Dr. Li’s research has been published in the Journal of Political Economy, American Economic Review, Rand Journal of Economics, Journal of Law and Economics, Journal of Public Economics, and the Journal of Comparative Economics.
He wrote the book Investing in Emerging Markets, published by the CFA Institute (formerly the Association for Investment Management and Research). His research insights have been featured in Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times and CNN.
CKGSB BCI Introduction
In June 2011, the CKGSB Case Center and the Center for Economic Research initiated a project to gauge the business sentiment of executives about the macro-economic environment in China – called an index of business conditions.
Under the direction of Professor Li Wei, in July 2011, the two research centers designed and tested the BCI survey. In September 2011, the first surveys were distributed and results computed. From May 2012 to January 2016, the research team has published 45 monthly BCI survey reports.
Explanation of the Index
The CKGSB Business Conditions Index (CKBCI) is a set of forward-looking, diffusion indices. The index takes 50 as its threshold, so an index value above 50 means that the variable that the index measures is expected to increase, while an index value below 50 means that the variable is expected to fall. The CKGSB BCI thus uses the same methodology as the PMI index.
The survey asks senior executives of companies whether their main products are for consumers or non-consumers, and then asks how they think product prices will change in the next six months. Based on survey responses, we have been able to report expectant changes in consumer and producer prices.
We ask companies for information pertaining to their relative competitive positions in their respective industries. Based on survey responses, we compute a competitiveness index for our sample. The higher the competitiveness index, the more competitive our sample firms are in their respective industries.
Method of Calculation
During each survey, respondents are asked to indicate whether certain aspects of their business (e.g., sales) are expected to increase, remain unchanged, or decrease over the forthcoming six months as compared to the same time period last year. The diffusion index is calculated by summing the percentage of “increase” responses and half of the “remain unchanged” responses.
Of all the indices measured for the CKGSB BCI, the overall business conditions index is an aggregate index, which has been calculated, since December 2012, by averaging its four constituent indices of sales, profit, financing environment and inventory. The aggregate BCI index before December 2012 uses a different composition of constituent indices, and is therefore not directly comparable to the current BCI index.