Gan Jie, Professor of Finance and Director of the Center on Finance and Economic Growth at CKGSB, delivers her latest survey results at a media roundtable in Seoul on May 19
Gan Jie, Professor of Finance and Director of the Center on Finance and Economic Growth at CKGSB revealed her 2015 Q1 Business Sentiment Index (BSI) survey results at a media entitled “China’s Economy Overview” on May 19 at the Plaza, Seoul. The BSI is an indicator that evaluates China’s current economic sentiments based on a large-sample survey of more than 2,000 industrial firms in China. It accounts for both current and expected operating conditions, as well as investment.
Nine top-tier Korean media including general dailies, economic dailies and on-line press were in attendance and discussed in-depth knowledge about China’s economy. Professor Gan’s analysis found that a hard landing is not likely in spite of a struggling situation – insight that is the basis of an article by Maeil Business Newspaper, which also underlines the importance of domestic demand and technology innovation:
Professor Gan mentioned that the challenges facing the Chinese economy are structural and fundamental. Overcapacity is still a prominent problem while increased costs remained as the other main problem. “The government should formulate a long-term policy of increasing domestic demand and technological innovation,” said Professor Gan.
Money Today, which is the most prominent economic daily among stock market participants in Korea, also reviewed Prof Gan’s speech:
Professor Gan said that the Chinese economy is now in the status of rebounding, and there is a small possibility of a hard landing or downturn due to following reasons: First, the operating conditions of firms have been improving over the past four quarters. Second, the largest challenge facing the economy – overcapacity – has stabilized since Q4 last year.
In an exclusive interview centered on Prof. Gan’s talk, eDaily highlighted the concerns about the credibility of the government’s official data:
“The government’s announcement of GDP is not 100% reliable, as we know. Even Chinese Premier Li Keqiang uses his own statistics, the Li Keqiang Index,” said Professor Gan. Caixin’s PMI is somewhat helpful in understanding the current situation, but it has limits according to Prof. Gan. Hence, she developed her own mechanism to understand the backdrop of each boom-bust cycle.
“China’s Economic Overview through BSI”, Maeil Business Newspaper
“China’s Economy is Ready to Boost”, Money Today
“Prof. Gan Jie Interview: Doubtful Chinese Economic Indicators”, eDaily